Aussie retailers love Albo’s Big Australia

On Friday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released data on retail sales volumes for the September quarter, which recorded a 0.2% increase, beating economists’ expectations of a 0.2% decline:

NSW (1.3%) and Victoria (1.2%), which received the lion’s share of record net overseas migration (NOM), reported strong quarterly sales growth.

Over the year, retail sales fell by 1.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis.

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In fact, adjusting for population growth of around 0.7% in the September quarter and population growth of 2.7% year-on-year, Australian retail sales fell by around 0.5% this quarter and more than 4% year-on-year year.

The following chart from Justin Fabo of Macquarie Group illustrates the impact Australia’s unprecedented population growth is having on Australian retail sales:

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Without the Albanian government’s record NOM, which saw around 500,000 net migrants flood Australia in 2022-23, retailers would be in a deep recession.

The above is indicative of the ‘burnout economy’ described by Tarric Brooker.

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The RBA’s aggressive rate hikes have led to a reduction in individual consumption, with households pushing hard and cutting back on spending.

But the sheer force of record population growth of over 600,000 people, largely through NOM, is pushing up aggregate demand across the economy, likely forcing the RBA to slam on the brakes and start rising again.

We have a federal government that is irresponsibly bucking the RBA and driving up inflation further through record levels of immigration-fueled population growth.

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And the two-thirds of Australians who rent or have a mortgage are paying the direct price for Labor’s incompetence.